In the previous article we said that the Truth should be the historical inevitability of progress. But that is if that progress occure. In fact progress is not inevitable, collapse of civilization is not excluded, moreover, such collapses already probably occurred.
Civilization may fall under the pressure of the barbarians, as once Roman had fallen. As a result of the war and significant riots may revert to the feudal level with components of industrial. Entirely also possible variant, in which a certain group of people will keep current technologies and create something like Shambhala, and will govern wild tribes of prairies therefrom. And may be will not govern, what for are they to them, excepting for safari. It sounds fantastic, but it makes no sense to reject this version. Already the next generation will not be able to manage existing devices, through one will only listen to fairy tales, and their grandchildren will already see not the technique, but gods and magicians. This option is described in many works of fiction, it is shown in a number of films, and does not seem too impossible.
After all with terrifying probability looms reality of version of Orwell and followers. Information era doesn't need crowds, as the past. At the agriculture era a peasant was a necessary mean of production, along with the land, so than more peasants you have, all the better. At the industrial era with its machine tools and blast furnaces without a man you could hardly manage. But on approaches to the robotics century futurologists already clutching their heads, what to do with workers. They talk something out there about re-professionalisation and re-training, but more or less intelligent people are clearly aware, this is all useless talks. When jobs are scarce already a quarter of trained youth, what is the point to retrain category over forties.
They say that all will produce "information", sell it to each other and live on this. To be honest, I can not imagine what kind of information can this actually be. Valuable information - scientific, is too expensive in "the expenditure side", will cost even more expensive, and hardly the general public will pay for it. Games, well, movies, tv-shows, all sorts of entertainment baubles, all this subsequently is possible to do paid. Free, piratical exists in the internet from its inception in so far as states have not yet reached there their hand. Pirated free internet - like the Wild West in westerns. It ends when the state comes there. Also be assured, if anyone can then find something for free, that will be only a few specialists of stealing. The weather they no longer will do. So it turns out probably so, perhaps all will earn on some entertainment baubles from each other. But. Already the best games and movies are very expensive "in production". But profit receives "company", and all the numerous staff programmers - only the salary. A person or a small group can no longer create something competitive, and I don't see why this should change, - the user's requirements will only grow. Moreover, now programmers still get relatively good salaries, but they are already falling, and will fall further, when competition significant increase. Because other professions already almost gone. A certain number of technicians on service of robots and harvesters, some share - waiters and cooks for fastidious wealthy. Well, else some number of teachers and doctors, few because of online education and network doctors. And the rest – faster to programmers-entertainers? Great offer reduces the price.
And who will buy all that entertainment and on what means? Unconditional minimum income, they say. Well, of course. That is that minimum income should be enough for food, clothes, dwelling. And then also for paid entertainment. Well, that's real communism comes out. About such only to dream. But who will "earn" the money, that will then be distributed to all? Couple let dozens of corporations. 1-2 agricultural, 3-4 industrial, a couple of construction firms and let a pair of transport. Of course the kings of modern times - Game companies, even five pieces, for competition. They will earn the basic gross income, then transfer a significant part of it to a State, that then it could distribute a minimum income, that then people could buy food and entertainment, that corporations could make profit on them, to have ability to distribute a minimum income. Some kind of a vicious circle. So before my eyes get up little rooms -small cells from "Black Mirror", where people twirl bikes to offset at least some portion of the value of their existence. But for what are they? Their existence costs more than they produce. They are not needed. They are redundant. They will disappear. This process can be speeded up, but hardly anyone will it slow down.
An alternative turns even more socialistic. If corporations don't belong to a limited circle of owners, and will belong to the community, then you can create more or less equal conditions for majority. Of course they’ll have to regulate and distribute. But socialism is now thoroughly discredited, doesn't it? Therefore, we'll have corporations, private estates-parks and little room-cells. Or let's hope on humanity of civilization owners, who remain more or less conditions for unnecessary crowds.
There is another option. But first let's look at the history of humankind under a little bit different angle, than in previous article.
A natural economy and specialization
Now we've become accustomed to the fact, that a person cann't survive on their own, at least in the civilized human form. Somebody riding on a tractor, somebody riveting iphones, and someone invents fairy tales. And everyone is doing in what he the best, or something to what made a case. Once a family could survive on their own, on farm, producing everything necessary for life. Vegetables, meat, milk, honey, wax, fabric and even pots. For iron they had to go to a nearest blacksmith, but there were a lot of them, a blacksmith in every decent village. Also in the village they could time to time get to the market, something to sell and buy unnecessary for the survival extravagances. This is called natural economy. Now almost nobody can survive alone, even in the countryside. With only vegetables you'll not survive, and already very few families hold cows and pigs, nobody grinds flour and produces tissue, not enough for all even firewood for heating, and electrical self-sufficiency is still a myth. Moreover, now even states can no longer survive on their own, at least not without significant deterioration in living standards. One sorely lacking fuel, others are not able to produce modern equipment, a third do not have enough food and water, and few manufactures fabrics.
Specialization, including countries, on the one hand is extremely beneficial. But on the other hand, it significantly reduces the ability of individuals (countries) to survive.
Any crisis echoes in almost all countries, and significant crisis, especially the war, can mess things up all over the world. If trade relations interrupted, someone will eat oil, and someone will sitting in coldness and darkness. Countries are trying to prevent such a development of things by creating reserves, which anyone can, but suffice them for a while. Besides this situation, when every single person knows only their own small piece of work, a little aware of processes in related areas, but doesn't present a picture of the world in general, may eventually lead to destruction of the common culture and civilization.
Such a differentiation, that is the allocation of different groups of people, their divergence from each other up to general misunderstanding, what exactly that person is doing and why he is needed, creates great misunderstanding in the society, which is capable in this case be settled and compensated only by "reasonable center". Otherwise groups, which don't understand each other, will begin to pull the blanket over himself, believing that I deserve more, because I do hard, important and necessary work, and they do almost nothing, why do they luxuriate?
Actually in the era of specialization things were going precisely in such a way. Long before Marx people noted and pondered the facts of the class struggle. The settlement of these contradictions were the most important thing of authorities of all times. Matter of internal policy, internal security and economy, and, of course, religion as an ideological power. The psychological reasons of conflict of allocated groups of society are the lack of understanding of what actually the others do, how that difficult and important, and overstatement of self-importance and belittling the values of others.
Now we live in time of another "dispute of specializations". Russia decided that her work as "gas station" so important and indispensable for Europe, up to the status of "energy superpower", and tried to blackmail, relatively successful, with their position. Next in turn demarche of China, which is already beginning to assume, that ceased to be just a link in the global division of specializations, and can be self-sufficient in all respects. Moreover, now more likely others will depend on it, than it from them. China has built a complete production cycle of almost all goods until the space sphere. And to get a few lacking resources, this is a matter of technique, as they say.
Thus, the "center" must coordinate the cooperation of specialized groups and resolve conflicts, generated by misunderstanding.
But if the center perish (it gets a nuclear bomb, rot from corruption, be abducted by aliens, or poisoned by enemies), then the whole society will perish. Something like this had happened with the collapse of the USSR: despite of the fact that in Ukraine there were all specialized structures, that is the police, industry, agriculture, and actually administrative apparatus, but it was not the main center, only a secondary, which aired commands from Moscow. And while this secondary center tried to reconfigure and to took over the functions of the main center, there were lines for bread in the country for several years, people had to sell tires and bags of sugar, completely disappeared who knows where toilet paper with all the other store merchandise, and the police who knows why ceased to deal with gangs of lads, that pressed down commerce and industry. In that chaotic time many people died because of shooting and feeling of hopelessness. And this is only while a secondary center was taking the steering levers. And if any center disappears completely?
In the era of natural economy such grandiose disasters were impossible. If someone burn the market, they rebuilt near, that's all. Each household is almost self-sufficient, at least it is able to survive.
Working specialization has led to greater consequences than conspicuous division on "a sewer, a reaper, a fife musician". Working specialization has led also to the fact that the man appeared not able to protect himself and his family, and the family appeared not able to bring up itself their children. Ancient roman peasant harvested in summer, and in autumn went to a military campaign, and anyway was able to protect his own house. Ukrainian got harvest and went to Zaporizhzhya Sich for winter, and anywhere else a few people dared to touch the good fellow with a sword. Another thing is now, when partly because of lack of time, physical training and skills, and partly because of the prohibition to have weapons, we have to go to the police, and already after the fact. Children who previously rambled near their parents for days, adopting their skills and helping with works, must now go to school and university, because their parents if have enough perspective education, have not enough time to engage with them.
Specialization on the one hand led to improved productivity, and hence to increased wealth. But on the other hand, it led to loss of independence and integrity, and by men, and by countries.
In the perspective of stability and survival of system, more secure will be a system, that consists of a number of clusters, quite self-sufficient and functionally interchangeable, capable to self-replication. Than a system consisting of dissimilar, though highly functional clusters, whose interaction becomes impossible, when the Coordinating Center is lost. According to the first principle biological cells are constructed, each with a copy of chromosome set, viruses and humanity itself as a whole, where one person similar to another and can be replaced. Irreplaceable ones, as you know, we don't have) According to the second type a man as a unit is constructed. You can more or less live without arms, with a prosthetic leg, without a kidney, and even blind. But if the brain is lost, then all down the drain. A man is mortal, but humanity let's hope no.
Can we return self-sufficiency to separate communities, of course, without losing all the comforts of modern civilization? Because actually I, despite all of the above, have no desire to sit without electricity and youtube somewhere on an ecological farm, collecting pine nuts and enjoying the fresh air. Comfort is above the distant and ghostly all.
Yet in the middle of the last century, people began to dream of controlled thermonuclear reactions. They would allow to create many small and powerful sources of energy for each cluster-community, located anywhere, energetically independent, not tied to hydroelectric plants, coal or gas fields, to a huge nuclear plants and electricity grids. But, unfortunately, the dream is still a dream. Solar and wind farms are costly and don’t provide the required power, all other alternative sources as well, still too expensive and low-power.
Instead recently they invented 3D-printers. This is a significant civilizational leap of industrial machinery, where the manufacturing process is based on a completely different method, than in the past: do not cut off unnecessary, but add missing. All known past millenniums, humanity was taking materials, existing in nature, and cut off from them superfluous, making details of required shape, and then composed them together into a product. These activities require a very large number of different parts, made by different complex technologies from the many varieties of materials. So not surprisingly the production processes are scattered around the grounds, and should be tied to resources, or material, or energy, or human. 3D technology is beginning to enter a completely new method of production: "cultivation" of goods directly as they should be of several kinds of powder material. The use of this material is more economical, and can be a multiple. But its production requires significant energy consumption.
With the help of 3D-production cluster-communities could provide themselves with all on place, from plates and socks to houses and cars. Then it eliminates the need for freight charges for the transportation of finished products, storage, warehousing, sale. There will be no need to build large plants for production of goods. And headache of their leadership about what exactly to produce will disappear, and about in what people will needed and in what quantity, how to advertise and how not to overstock warehouses. Moreover, the phenomenon of the crisis of overproduction will depart to the past generally. At the same time, people will no longer be the workers who produce a lot of "extra" products, that will not be sold and will be destroyed, and no one will get the benefit of this work - neither society nor workers themselves.
Therefore, in each cluster-community there is a number of 3D printers to produce on-site all the necessities for life and not depend on supplies, conflicts, technological and natural disasters in other places. Domestic 3D printers are already sold, with the help of which it is possible to produce everything necessary for a household. Dishes, linen, clothes, even furniture. Vehicles, buildings and complex technical devices can be manufactured in local 3D-manufactures on request. It's just a matter of raw materials for printers and sets of drawing programs for everything in the world. The transfer of information is not a problem now, and everyone should soon become programmers). Creating a new product will mean creating a drawing program for a 3D printer, and selling a product - selling the program. But raw material for the printer is still very expensive and difficult to produce, but researchers and scientists are working in this direction. When the technology is brought into the state of "it is possible to build a plant in each cluster community," the matter will remain only in the source of energy. From a technological point of view. Because the technological premise is necessary, but not sufficient to return to cluster communities.
Another important prerequisite for the emergence of a cluster society, along with the technological one, will be the overcoming of psychological inertia and the restructuring of the entire current social order. The authorities of any state will not be happy to get rid of the power. And the masses, in spite of what they think about themselves, are also not very eager to take responsibility. To stay in the specialized era is simple enough to elites. It's only necessary to continue to hold in their ownership new sources of energy, and gradually replace the current plants by large 3D-plants, in their own property, of course. Remain thus "on the flow", distributing free benefits to anyone and how much it seems necessary. And again, before us clearly looms the spooky specter of the future, where a certain number of "owners of everything" live in technological paradise, prolonging their lives with modern medicine, surrounded by a certain number of necessary technicians and physicians. And all the rest are not needed.. And it is quite possible. I don't see a single reason why it is impossible. Moreover, this option seems more likely than others.
But I see another variant. Cluster societies, all production is in common ownership, and it managed by a direct online democracy, where one vote is not equal to other. The weight of one person's voice is calculated by the coefficient, which depends on: the coefficient of his intelligence, the level of general education and the levels of special branch knowledge, on age or experience in solving specific problems, on the coefficient of involvement in resolving issues in the past, and of course on the level of honesty. If in past a person was caught in a lie, any, this should reflect on the weight of his voice in future. The weight of the voice of a specialist who has special knowledge in the matter under consideration is, of course, considerably higher than the weight of voices of specialists on other issues. And the more so the weight of the voice of a person with a secondary education, who mostly watches a movie, but can also write programs for good decorative vases, which are successfully sold all over the world. Such a system will firstly encourage people to education and participation in public life of educated people, who are ready to influence the development of society, but are not forced to go to give one vote for someone, not clear who is he. Secondly, it will make impossible the populism of ignoramuses and save a lot of money, that is constantly spent on so-called "election campaigns". Thirdly, finally the green light will emerge for the sustainable development of societies without a subversive struggle for power and coups, when any decisions will be taken by competent people, transparently and openly, with public online discussions, and influenced by those fellow citizens, who have really studied the matter and have something to say on business.
How can clustered communities be better than the global world in terms of survival?
1. Dispersion of control structures. A large number of people take part in management, and has direct experience managing their clusters, or a cluster alliance. This will make it impossible to lose the "control center" in some kind of accident, catastrophe, terrorist attack or war. How for example died the whole plane with the Polish leaders in 2010. And there could be two planes, or a terrorist attack on Pentagon, about which many dream.
2. Industrial production is dispersed everywhere where people live. Now for example smartphones produce a couple of plants around the world. If a meteorite hits one of them, a double load will fall on the other. Therefore, say, and it will break. And about threats, which entail the failure of large energy centers - nuclear power plants, hydropower stations, gas pipelines, what to say.
3. Food security. Now countries are actively exchanging food, and some of them are very dependent on food supplies, and other - on demand on their products. When wars or cataclysms happen, external help is needed, transporting large amounts of food over long distances. That only there was no famine. Another problem is that most agricultural productions now depends on seed supplies from two seed companies. What happens if a meteorite hits them? Cluster societies should each reproduce the seed fund, at least that which they themselves grow, cluster alliances - the seed fund of their region. In the silicone valley a method of growing meat "in vitro" has already been invented. Such methods of food production may well become common, and each cluster will have such a product factory, and near neighbors will have the opportunity to help the victim quickly and beside.
4. Cultural and social security. It is already obvious that some nations and cultures are too hostile to other cultural and social values. Without controversy on theme "is the policy of multiculturalism realistic, or is it generally unfit for implementation anywhere and anytime", one can clearly say that we can not and should not make others live as we ourselves have decided to be right. Some people do not want to live next to gays, let them be a cluster at least without gay pride parades and public cum-outs. Some people want to keep wives in burqas, let them, but in other clusters walking in a burqa will be prohibited. Somewhere they want to see around the hard Sharia and believe that it will be better, and somewhere they do not want to see the process of slaughtering the sacrificial ram in their yard, and let it be prohibited. Somewhere they believe that short skirts provoke and in general interfere to live, but somewhere they believe that the human body is natural, and nakedness can help to release creative energy. And let every community or union of societies in free competition prove that their way of life is the best. This is the main principle of evolution and survival - diversity. Each cluster will have the opportunity to put its own social experiment on itself, and others will not suffer from it. Of course, at the same time there should be the possibility of free exit from the cluster for very dissenters, and a more or less agreed birth policy, depending on the carrying capacity of the cluster territory and the standard of living claimed by its citizens. Because the principle of the cuckoo in nature has not been canceled yet.
5. Finally, military security. We should not overestimate the development of mankind, as if already to human super-beings, and possible external threats should not be underestimated. In previous phase of natural economy every man was a warrior, and even a women in mongols. I don't see anything wrong with the fact that for a certain amount of time children and adults, who will be significantly freed from work thanks to technologies, devote to physical exercises and moving games. Useful for both health and personal communication, instead of playing computer games. Let them get acquainted with personal weapons and powerful equipment, which can overpower. The larger the army, the stronger the country, and at the same time the planet. In the era of specialization professional army became an instrument of power for elites, and this instrument led to the concentration of power, from there to the concentration of wealth, further to unification in states, and again through the concentration of wealth further to empires, on the principle of positive feedback. Concentration of force leads to a concentration of power. Spraying power leads to democracy.